GLD Quarterly Chart

     The "big picture" view of GLD (World Gold Index); as seen by the Quarterly chart, is dominated from the tremendous bull rally from the 1999 low. Unusual is the fact that we have reached an astounding 40 consecutive price bars which closed higher than the close of the bar four previous to it. This included the string of 28 consecutive such closes through the completion of a sequential countdown in the second quarter of 2008 (2Q08). The implication of this development is that there has been no chance of a sell setup "recycle". The buying pressure has been unrelenting. Now, with the risk level associated with the completed sequential sell countdown (dashed horizontal cyan line at 1224.6) exceeded without even a price flip, this chart is a long way from any TD sell signal. At a minimum we would have to get a price flip to recycle and then another sell setup.
     This same conclusion is drawn from the price pulse model. From the 1999 low we are in a delta pulse of the sequence, and a sell signal can only be generated now with a direct collapse beneath the beta-pulse low. To get a more "reasonable" sell we need an x-pulse pullback followed by a y-pulse rally that sets up actionable sell parameters. Interestingly this is similar to needing a sell setup recycle.
     So is there a pullback in sight that might produce an x-pulse and sell setup recycle? The only hint that this might well be pending is the fact that the tops in the derivative oscillator (bottom pane) are diverging with price. So yes, our x-pulse pullback is coming. But when? To better answer this question we need to drop down to the monthly level which will be covered in my next post on GLD.
     Bottom Line: the quarterly chart is unsurprisingly bullish and would contribute a +25 to an allocation mix meter.