There is now no chance of a final fifth wave push higher. The fifth wave is in at the August 2 high which coincided with a TD Combo 13. And so the daily chart remains bearish.
The question now revolves around the significance of the August 2 high. Is it the end of the rally from the 2009 low? Does it mark the completion of a “D” wave in an expanding triangle from the year 2000? Or is it just a resting point on the way to higher highs? I am quite convinced that the August 2 top ends the rally from the June 24 low. Does it also mark the end of the trending impulse wave from the November 2012 low? From the daily chart itself there are a few ways to try and answer this question.
1) Price Pulses. The next trendline of interest is the much larger Beta – X line shown in orange on the chart. A close beneath this line will raise the chances significantly that the trending impulse pattern from last November is complete.
2) RSI. Two readings below 38 will also point to the August high as completing the pattern from November 2012. The RSI is currently at 40.8.
Another way to gauge the August 2 high is with charts of higher timeframes. I will look at the new weekly chart this weekend. Remember that a close today less than 1692.09 will flip this chart bearish!
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