SPX Daily Chart 28 Dec 11

SPX Elliott Wave Count 23 Dec 11

SPX Wave Count for Dec. 13

Daily Wave Count 7 Dec 2011

Daily Wave Count 1 Dec 11

Blog Suspended

Things have become a bit too hectic for me of late and so this blog is being suspended.

Saxby Fox

SPX Daily Chart - 22 Sep 11

     A retest of the Beta pulse low is now underway in the cash SP500. After yesterday's sell off it is extremely unlikely that last week's break out on the weekly chart will be confirmed. This comes on the heels of the RSI/Composite bearish divergence on the daily chart. 
     As mentioned yesterday, the retest of the Beta pulse low may result in yet another bounce attempt. However, since the Beta low was actually broken, the price pulse model is now negative. Surprisingly I am beginning to see hints of bullishness appear! The first was cited yesterday on the daily REI. It showed the likelihood that we would bounce upward after the test of the beta low. Now I want to also point out that the RSI is at a critical juncture as it tries to hold the area reserved for support in bull markets. Even if it can't hold there today it is possible that a bullish divergence may form with the August 22 low on any close below 1123.53. Finally, today may turn out to be bar 12 of a daily sequential buy! 
    Bottom Line: My current idea is that the break of 1136.07 signals that the downtrend has resumed. Am I being too hasty in this decision? Perhaps the real retest is of the August low (previous x pulse bottom)? Today will give us more information, as will the new weekly chart. For now  my mechanical allocation mix meter has fallen to 25%.

SPX Daily Chart - 21 Sep 11

     After yesterday's sell off it might seem that the RSI/Composite bearish divergence and the weekly chart analysis of "the downtrend being close to resuming" was reasonable. In fact, note that we are on the verge of not confirming the weekly break out (see the weekly post). This also seems to put the odds in favor of the bearish case.
     And although I think the bearish position will be right over the coming weeks I am not convinced that the bottom will fall out here - if only because the daily REI is showing a strong up trend from the Beta bottom. But maybe this is just a reflection of typical delta pulse strength? Possible delta pulse strength means that a retest of the Beta pulse low may result in yet another bounce attempt. It will be critical to see if the Beta low is actually broken. If it is, then even if we get a bounce (even as far as the 1245-47 area), we can anticipate that lower lows are likely ahead of us.
    Bottom Line: I think the bounce/consolidation from the August low is either running on fumes or over. A break of 1136.07 will convince me that the downtrend has resumed - even if another bounce up ensues. My mechanical allocation mix meter is at +50% but would drop to 25% on a break of that 1136.07 level.

SPX Daily Chart - 20 Sep 11

     As far as my analysis methodology goes, yesterday's price action did nothing but mark time. The next upside target area is 1245-47. It is interesting to note that at this level delta will equal alpha in length.
    Bottom Line: I think the bounce/consolidation from the August low is running out of steam. A break of 1136.07 will convince me that the downtrend has resumed. My mechanical allocation mix meter is at +50%.

SPX Daily Chart - 19 Sep 11

     The ongoing bounce/consolidation in the cash SP500 was given a warning blow yesterday when the Composite Index (middle pane) bearishly diverged with the RSI (top pane). This divergence warning is not foolproof; but when combined with the conclusions reached from the weekly analysis it seems likely that the downtrend is close to resuming.
     While we watch for other confirming evidence that the bounce is complete, keep in mind that we are now in a delta pulse. Not only is Delta usually the strongest upward pulse in a cycle, it is the primary place where divergences of the sort just mentioned are prone to fail. Nevertheless, if this delta pulse turns out not to be stronger than the preceding alpha it is another bearish warning. The next upside target area is 1245-47. It is interesting to note that at this level delta will equal alpha in length.
    Bottom Line: I think the bounce/consolidation from the August low is running out of steam. A break of 1136.07 will convince me that the downtrend has resumed. My mechanical allocation mix meter is at +50%.

SPX Weekly Chart - 16 Sep 11

     It was a strong week for the cash SP500 as both the long (green) moving average and supply line (red dashed) were broken in a qualified manner. If those breaks are confirmed this week then the bounce from the August low is alive and well. However, as before, I think that the short (red) or medium (blue) moving averages is the best we might get before the larger downtrend asserts itself.
     Besides the reasons spelled out last week, another piece of evidence supporting an ultimately bearish resolution is the REI indicator shown in the top pane. The fact that the REI has been oversold (below the bottom blue line) for six weeks now indicates a trending market. In such a case we should look for the downtrend to reassert itself with a new low being made over the coming few weeks.
     Bottom Line: For this week it will be important to see if we get confirmation of the upside breaks of the long (green) moving average and the supply line (dashed red line). A failure to confirm would be bearish. The allocation meter is at a +50% and I am expecting the August low to give way after this consolidation/bounce completes.

SPX Daily Chart - 15 Sep 11

     The bulls continue to press the cash SP500 higher, overcoming key resistance at the 1186 level. Does this mean all is rosy? Not necessarily. Take a look at the composite index (middle pane). While the RSI (top pane) has pushed to a new high here the composite is lagging. Should this turn in to an actual divergence a warning would be given that the bounce/consolidation from early August is complete.
     While we watch those two indicators note that we are now in a delta pulse. Delta should be the strongest upward pulse in a cycle.  If it is not that is another bearish warning. The next upside target area is 1245-47.
    Bottom Line:  Until further evidence develops or we break 1136.07, I think that the bullish potential over the near term should be respected. My mechanical allocation mix meter is at +50%.

SPX Daily Chart - 14 Sep 11

     An impressive showing for the bulls as they were able to push the cash SP500 over, and then close above, key resistance. That resistance at 1186 was composed of the medium (blue) and short (red) moving averages as well as the TD Supply line. There was a downside though: the break was an unqualified one. This means that we need to be suspicious of this being a false breakout.
     So once again we want to see if the bulls can provide follow through to the upside. Their immediate goal is to break 1204.40 to indicate that the delta pulse is underway. The next upside target would be 1245-47. If the bulls can't follow through then we will have to watch what happens at the demand line (horizontal dashed green line).
    Bottom Line:  Until further evidence develops or we break 1121.09 I think that the bullish potential over the near term should be respected. My mechanical allocation mix meter is at +50%.

SPX Daily Chart - 13 Sep 11

     There was follow through to the upside in the cash SP500 yesterday but it certainly was not remarkable. The focus for the bulls (besides seeing more follow through) must be the strong resistance forming in the 1186 area composed of the medium (blue) and short (red) moving averages as well as the TD Supply line. This is formidable resistance and whether it can be overcome may be the tell on whether the consolidation from early August is over or not.
    Bottom Line:  Until further evidence develops, or we break 1121.09, I think that the bullish potential over the near term should be respected. My mechanical allocation mix meter is at +50%.

SPX Daily Chart - 12 Sep 11

     The fight continues over whether the consolidation/bounce is over in the cash SP500. The price action over the last two sessions has confirmed that the alpha-pulse ended at the August 31 high. The price pulse model says that the bulls have most likely failed if we break below the August 22 low of 1121.09.
    If you are bullish near term (like I am) the good news is that the intraday break of the TD Demand line yesterday was unqualified - demand did come into the market at that level. Now we need to see some follow through. Another thing to worry about (besides seeing follow through) is the strong resistance forming in the 1185-1194 area composed of the medium (blue) and short (red) moving averages as well as the TD Supply line.
     I think the fight today will again be over: 1) keeping the daily RSI above the 38 level; and 2) the TD Demand level (upsloping dashed green line). 
     Bottom Line:  Until further evidence develops or we break 1121.09 I think that the bullish potential over the near term should be respected. My mechanical allocation mix meter is at +50%.

SPX Weekly Chart - 9 Sep 11

     Recent review of the monthly chart showed an overall bearish position for the cash SP500 while the daily showed that a choppy counter-trend rally has further to go. What does the weekly chart have to say?
     In my last weekly posting (26 Aug) I stated that an A-B-C or 1-2-3 structure has formed from the May 2011 high. The first two D-Waves (either A-B or 1-2) correspond (in this particular instance) to the x and y pulses shown on the chart. The strong decline from July 8 to August 12 has been with the Z-pulse of the price pulse model. Recall that the Z-pulse often contains the sharpest declines as the Delta-pulse often contains the largest rallies. Since the RSI has broken below 38 I favor the bear market 1-2-3 D-Wave count. Is wave 3 in this model over? Technically no. The fourth D-wave can only be said to be underway when we see a high greater than the previous 12 highs.
     The implication is that D-wave 3 has more to go to the downside, and that the price action since the z-pulse bottom is just a bounce or consolidation. Note that the low of August 12th came right at the 38.2% retracement level of the 2009-2011 rally. One week later the RSI (top pane)  bounced off of the level reserved for support in bear markets and the Composite indicator (middle pane) made bullish divergence with the RSI. This is the evidence that supports that a bounce or consolidation is in fact underway. And this interpretation fits the monthly and daily scenarios we have been discussing. The price action in this bounce/consolidation is an alpha pulse on the weekly chart.
     Going forward we can use the price pulse model to gauge when the bounce/consolidation (if it is solely associated with just the alpha pulse) might be over. Right now it would be signaled on any move below 1121.09; which was also important in the daily chart. To the upside I think the short (red) or medium (blue) moving averages is the best we might get before the larger downtrend assert itself.
     Bottom LIne: For this week I think the levels to watch are the long (green) moving average and the Demand Line (dashed green line). Qualified, confirmed breaks of these lines would point to; respectively, either a bounce (vice consolidation) or renewed decline. The allocation meter is at a +50% and I am expecting the August low to give way after this consolidation/bounce completes.

SPX Daily Chart - 8 Sep 11

     We are being squeezed between two moving averages. Which way will we break?
     In the last daily update (1 September) we saw the cash SP500 react downward after reaching the medium (blue) moving average. We then barely held contact with the short (red) moving average. From the short moving average I was expecting that we would reach for an even higher target. However, we reacted negatively once again to the medium (blue) moving average yesterday which is now parallel to the TD Supply line. And once again -- down to the short moving average. What now?
     At this point I still think the bulls have unfinished business to the upside. That said, I think the fight today will be over the weekly price flip point of 1178.81 and keeping the daily RSI above the 38 level. A failure to do either will lead to a test of  Demand (upsloping dashed green line) and the September 6 low. The price pulse model says that the bulls have failed if we break below the August 22 low of 1121.09.
     Higher targets include: 1245-1247 fibonacci and Trend Factor targets, the long (green) moving average and TDST resistance at 1332.
      Bottom Line:  I believe a counter-trend rally is underway from the early August low; albeit quite a choppy one. My mechanical allocation mix meter is at +50% - yesterday's post of 25% was in error. Until further evidence develops or we break 1121.09 I think that the bullish potential over the near term should be respected.

SPX Monthly - August 2011

     I am making good progress on recovering from a major computer crash. To get back into the swing of things, here is a quick update to the monthly chart.
     It was quite a volatile month! It also nicely shows why I follow the moving averages I do. The low of the month was nearly identical to the medium (blue) moving average and the close nearly identical with the long (green) moving average. Beyond that interesting point I can only say that this chart is currently bearish - which occurred when the Beta-pulse low at 1249.05 was broken. We are now in the downward moving X-pulse; the delta high occurring at the May high. This price pulse bearish development comes after the June price flip that cemented the TD Combo sell countdown in Februray. Note that this was also the first price flip after a sell setup bar #9 in May.
     Going forward there are a couple of things to watch for:
     (1) Will the decline make a qualified and confirmed break of TDST Support at 1049.33? After a Combo signal this should happen if the trend has really changed. Otherwise we are just in a correction to a larger uptrend.
     (2) Will the RSI hold above the zone reserved for bull market support (38-42)? As in (1) above, a break of this zone would confirm a trend change. Otherwise we are just in a correction of a larger uptrend.
    (3) Will the long and short (red) moving averages act as resistance?
    (4) Will the Supply Line (downsloping red dashed line) act as 'ultimate' resistance? The price pulse theory says this market is bearish unless the delta pulse high is broken.
     Bottom Line: in my asset allocation work this time frame is on a "sell" signal. Only the quarterly and daily charts are positive at this point and so the allocation mix meter is at 25%.
     Back to the daily chart tomorrow.

Computer Crash!

I had a major crash of my computer system which is taking me quite a long time to fix. I still haven't recovered all of my past work and data -- hopefully that will come over the next couple of days. Once that milestone is reached I will resume posting. Thanks for your patience.

Saxby

SPX Daily Chart - 1 September 2011

     The cash SP500 reached the medium (blue) moving average and we are now seeing a reaction to that level. Without a signal in the technical indicators my only conclusion is that we will only see a consolidation or pullback to the short (red) moving average here before we reach for an even higher target.
     Those higher targets include: 1245-1247 fibonacci and Trend Factor targets, the long (green) moving average and TDST resistance at 1332.
      Bottom Line:  I believe a counter-trend rally is underway from the August lows. My mechanical allocation mix meter has risen to +50% - the bullish potential over the near term should be respected.

SPX Daily Chart - 31 August 2011

     The cash SP500 reached the medium (blue) moving average yesterday. Will there be a reaction here? The early read of the technicals say that if there is, it will only be a hesitation,  and that a higher target will be reached for.
      The price targets to watch are: The medium (blue) moving average, 1245-1247 fibonacci and Trend Factor targets, the long (green) moving average and TDST resistance at 1332.
      Bottom Line:  I believe a counter-trend rally is underway. My mechanical allocation mix meter has risen to +50% - the bullish potential over the near term should be respected.

SPX Daily Chart - 30 August 2011

     After making an x-pulse low at a TD Buy Setup, the cash SP500 bounced in a y-pulse. The low was then successfully retested on August 19/22 when the z-pulse did not make a new low. A price pulse "buy" signal then confirmed the previous buy setup when we had a confirmed break of the supply line (delta - y trendline) on August 29. Yesterday the rate of advance was much slower but the market traced out an uptrending bar.
      The price targets to watch are: The medium (blue) moving average, 1245-1247 fibonacci and Trend Factor targets, the long (green) moving average and TDST resistance at 1332.
      Bottom Line:  I believe a counter-trend rally is underway. My mechanical allocation mix meter has risen to +50% - the bullish potential over the near term should be respected.

SPX Daily Chart - 29 August 2011

     When we last left the daily chart (16 August) I thought that we needed to retest demand (the low) again before a sustained bullish rally can get underway. That retest occurred on August 19/22 and was turned out to be successful. As noted yesterday it came in conjunction with a bullish divergence between the RSI and composite index on the weekly chart. Then, after an unqualified break of the daily supply line (downsloping red dashed line) on august 24, we had a qualified break on the 26th which was confirmed yesterday. The magnitude of this supply line break is such that a substantial retracement rally is possible although not necessary.
     Also note that yesterday's price action means that an A-B-C pattern may have completed on the daily D-wave chart. Just another reason to respect the bullish potential over the short term.
     There have also been developments in the price pulse as the x, y and z pulses have been confirmed complete. In this instance the buy signal matched the supply line already mentioned. With a buy setup in place (on August 9) the confirmed break of the supply line (delta - y trendline) raises the allocation mix meter to +50%.
      With that being said, the weekly chart hints that this is only a counter-trend rally. Thus the idea is to identify targets on the daily chart and watch for a reaction and confirming technical signals. Those targets are: The medium (blue) moving average, 1245-1247 fibonacci and Trend Factor targets, the long (green) moving average and TDST resistance at 1332.
      Bottom Line:  I believe a counter-trend rally is underway. My mechanical allocation mix meter has risen to +50% - the bullish potential over the near term should be respected.

SPX Weekly Chart - 26 August 2011

     Stepping back for a minute .... if we are not going to new all time highs in this rally that started in 2009, then we are in a "B" wave on the D-Wave Quarterly chart. The monthly chart shows that a possible A-B-C sequence has completed at the May 2011 high. This zig-zag interpretation is favored since the monthly RSI topped out in the zone reserved for bear market resistance. With that assumed background, the weekly chart shows that an A-B-C or 1-2-3 structure has formed from the May 2011 high. These D-Waves match (in this particular instance) the price pulse x and y pulses shown on the chart. Since the RSI has broken below 38 I favor the bear market 1-2-3 D-Wave count.
     Note that the May 2011 high was associated with the failure to make a qualified break of the risk level associated with the completed sequential sell countdown of February 18, 2011. In retrospect, this analysis results in viewing the five months from February 18th to July 22nd as topping action. Since then we have confirmed the the break of weekly TDST support (horizontal dashed green line) at 1219.50. This strong market decline has been the Z-pulse of the price pulse model. Recall that the Z-pulse often contains the sharpest declines as the Delta-pulse often contains the largest rallies.
     Simply put, the cash SP500 is now in a bear market at this time frame. Note that the low of August 12th came right at the 38.2% retracement level of the 2009-2011 rally. One week later the RSI bounced off of the level reserved for support in bear markets and the Composite indicator made bullish divergence with the RSI. This suggests either a bounce or consolidation is underway. I favor the consolidation scenario in a D-wave fourth wave.
     Bottom Line:  At this time I think the levels to watch are the long (green) moving average and the Demand Line (dashed green line). Qualified, confirmed breaks of these lines would point to; respectively, either a bounce (vice consolidation) or renewed decline. The allocation meter is at +25% and I am expecting the August low to give way after this consolidation/bounce completes.

SPX Daily Chart - 16 August 2011

     Since the August 9 low we have been tracking a rally in the cash SP500 from the deeply oversold condition it found itself in coincident with a TD Buy Setup. Yesterday the market opened right at the short (red) moving average and the risk level (1204.08)associated with the sell setup on the hourly chart. These two factors acted as expected - resistance. The question now is whether they also marked an end to the rally and the beginning of a retest of the low.
     One tool useful in deciding if the retest is "on" is the Range Expansion Index (REI) shown in the top pane of today's chart. Since the index moved above the overbought level (horizontal blue line) Monday with a higher close, a sell signal will now be triggered with a break of 1178.86. Note that this is generally the previous resistance area provided by TD Trend Factor and the fibonacci level. If previous resistance doesn't become support it is a sign of a weak market. This level did provide support yesterday.  If the bulls can continue to hold this level and then get through the short moving average the door is open to 1245.
      Bottom Line:  I favor the bearish case here and believe that we need to retest demand (the low) again before any sustained bullish rally can get underway. The current demand line (dashed green line) reflects the "retest level" well. The allocation mix meter remains at +25%.
     Note: I will not be posting until August 28 - vacation time!

Investigations - Part 4

Note: It may help to refer to the previous postings in this series.

     This infrequent series of postings has been examining two questions. The first is whether one can tell (at the time it is occurring) whether trend exhaustion will result in either 1) just a correction (pullback or consolidation);  or 2) in a full change in trend. To help answer that question we started using D-wave analysis to investigate whether impulse waves 1, 3, and 5 at one time frame are composed of a full five wave impulse sequence on the next lower time frame. For instance, we saw that Quarterly wave 3 (D.3) was, on the monthly chart, composed of a complete five wave sequence from the late 1982 low up into the high of 2000.  However; since this five wave sequence "nested" within a quarterly chart "third wave" and not a "fifth wave", the implication was that a trend change would not occur - only a correction associated with the quarterly fourth wave (D.4). The change in trend would have to wait until the completion of a full five wave sequence at the quarterly level.
     Does this same nesting characteristic show up in quarterly wave D.1 which began at the 1974 low? Yes. You can start a monthly sequence here for two reasons. The primary one being that the higher (quarterly) wave began here. Secondly you may note that the 1974 low (60.96 in in October) is a 21 period low. The analysis then reveals D1 at the 1977.1 (January) high; D2 at the 1978.3 (March) low; D3 at the 1980.2 high; D4 at the 1980.3 low; and D5 at the 1980.11 high. And so, as with quarterly wave D.3, quarterly wave D.1 is composed of five waves on the monthly scale.
     What should we expect during a correction? Will there be a full A-B-C wave structure? That is, will the corrective wave structure "nest" within the higher time frame's single corrective wave? Examining D-wave 2 (D.2) on the quarterly chart. With this wave, the answer is 'no'. The monthly chart only shows one wave down. How then do we know that the corrective sequence is over? The authoritative indication is when the quarterly chart fulfilled the requirement for D.3 to be underway, and in my work that is a high greater than all previous 20 price bars.
     At this point our theory concerning D-waves is that impulse waves sub-divide into five's and corrective waves into one or more waves. Without a definitive number of D-waves in a correction we may want to supplement what we mean by a correction in terms of other tools. One example is to use TDST support and resistance levels. With regard to the quarterly chart, if we were only expecting a correction (pullback or consolidation) from the year 2000 high, then the TDST support level (733.54 at the time) would be expected to hold. Indeed it did, as the accompanying chart shows.
     Next time I want to investigate the decline (Quarterly D.4) from the 2000 high on the monthly chart.
     To Be Continued ....

SPX Daily Chart - 15 August 2011

     On Monday the cash SP500 continued its rally from the deeply oversold condition it found itself in at the August 9th low. This low was in conjunction with a TD Buy Setup. My take continues to be that this rally will end at/near a fibonacci/moving average/TD Trend Factor target and will be followed by a retest of the low.
     Our initial target zone in the 1180 area was reached but only managed to cause a hesitation in price before we rallied through it yesterday. However, this break-out was not confirmed (although qualified) and could be a signal that the next target could prove fatal to the bull case. That next 'target' was the 1215 area yesterday since the short (red) moving average was sinking towards the fibonacci level there. For today that moving average will be even lower, about where we closed yesterday. Therefore the bulls will have a large test today right from the open. In conjunction with this is the test of the risk level associated with the sell setup on the hourly chart. We finally broke above that level (1204.08) in a qualified manner at the close yesterday. However, an open this morning below that value will be non confirmation and may spell trouble. On the other hand, if the bulls can 'pass' this test the door is open to 1245.
      Bottom Line:  I still believe that we will need to retest demand (the low) again before we can get a sustainable bullish rally. The current demand line (dashed green line) reflects the "retest level" well. For now however, we need to watch how price reacts at the short moving average and hourly sell setup risk level this morning. Failure would be a clear indication that the oversold bounce may be completing. The allocation mix meter remains at +25%.
     Note: I will not be able to post August 18-26.

SPX Weekly Chart - 12 Aug 2011

     Although we finished well off the lows it was another downtrending week in the cash SP500 market as we confirmed the the break of TDST support (horizontal dashed green line) at 1219.50. This strong market decline has been the Z-pulse of the price pulse model. Recall that the Z-pulse often contains the sharpest declines as the Delta-pulse often contains the largest rallies.
     Simply put, the market is now in a bear market on this time frame. Note that the low last week came right at the 38.2% retracement level of the 2009-2011 rally. Of interest now are the technical indicators. Compared to the RSI (top pane), the Composite Index (second pane) and Derivative Oscillator (third pane) are threatening to make bullish divergence. Threatening is the key word. These divergences are not yet in place.
     Bottom Line: At this point there is no reason to rush into any new judgments abut the medium term outlook. The allocation meter is at +25%.
     Note: I will not be posting 18-26 August.

SPX Daily Chart - 11 August 2011

     Ignoring the volatility, a key aspect of the last few sessions has been the fight over the risk level (1127.87) associated with the sequential buy signal on the hourly cash SP500. At Wednesday's close we had a qualified break below this level but the bulls regrouped overnight and were able to hold at the open on Thursday. This led to the break being unconfirmed and another thrust upward. Price then reached our initial target zone during the closing hour.
     I still believe that we will need to retest demand (the low) again before we can say that a sustained bullish rally is underway - - and the current demand line (dashed green line) reflects this well. For now however, we need to watch how price reacts at each of the target zones. Yesterday's break above the zone around 1180 (fibonacci and trend factor) was qualified. Let's see if we can confirm it today. I need to add the 1215 area to the list of resistance levels as the short (red) moving average is sinking towards it. Right above that is still the target at about 1245.
      Bottom Line: The allocation mix meter is at +25%. Watching for the bounce to hit resistance which will lead to a retest of Tuesday's low.

GLD Weekly Chart

      Like the Quarterly and Monthly charts presented previously, the weekly chart is in a bullish position. Starting from the 2008 Wave IV low (as analyzed on the monthly chart) we can see that the weekly is in the D-wave 5 position of an upward trend. The next chance of an exhaustion signal associated with that fifth wave would be a new sell setup. We are working on bar #6 of such a setup this week.
     Finally, price pulse theory states that we need to watch for a break of the Beta - X trendline here before deeming this chart as bearish. That trendline is shown by the bold orange line and is generally running parallel to the moving averages.
     Bottom line: Adding this chart to the mix produces an allocation reading of +75%. Only the daily chart is left to go. Look for that over the next few days.

SPX Daily Chart - 9 August 2011

     The bounce is underway; and there is really not much to add in the way of commentary. The initial targets to watch can be seen via fibonacci relationships, moving averages and TD Trend Factor. The assault on the first area to monitor (around 1180) began with the final hour rally on Tuesday. Another (and perhaps more important) target to keep an eye on will be 1245. The short (red) moving average is sinking towards that level now.
 At Monday's close the hourly chart had an unqualified break of the associated sequential buy risk level. This led to a rally attempt that stalled during yesterday's lunch hour. We then fell and actually broke the risk level (1127.87) in a qualified manner at 3pm. However, the break ended up being unconfirmed (higher low) as the bulls took charge during the closing hour. Result: the rally from extreme oversold conditions is on.
     Bottom Line: The allocation mix meter is at +25%. Expecting an oversold rally to be followed by a retest of the low.
     P.S. I will not be able to post Thursday morning.

GLD Monthly Chart

     On the quarterly chart (discussed a few days ago) there were no D-waves completed from the 1999 low. On the monthly chart of GLD we are following a five wave sequence from that low with a fourth wave having completed at the 2008 bottom. That was also the completion of a Beta-pulse. These facts imply that we are currently in a fifth wave which is also a Delta-pulse. This means that the monthly chart is currently in a bullish position.
     As far as TD signals go, a 9-13-9 sell pattern completed in December 2010. However, that signal was negated in April 2011 when we had a qualified and confirmed break of the associated risk level. At this time we are waiting for either a sequential or combo sell signal to develop. The earliest this could happen would be October. Such a signal would most likely be the pullback we are waiting for on the Quarterly chart and would not be a sell signal in my allocation work. That is, the monthly chart would still contribute a +25% to the overall allocation mix.
     Bottom Line: Both the quarterly and monthly charts of GLD are bullish. These two charts add up to a +50% allocation meter reading; but we still have the weekly and daily charts to cover in the days ahead.

SPX Daily Chart - 8 August 2011

     It was another remarkable day in the cash SP500 market; if only because all 500 stocks in that index were down on the day. All of them. And now we watch for the usual scenario to develop: bounce and retest.
     Yesterday marked bar #9 of a daily buy setup. This is the indication that tells us we should watch for a bounce. The indicators I follow then say to watch for a retest. As an example, the RSI (top pane) is now at it's lowest level since September 2001. The composite index is showing its lowest value in at least 28 years!  Extreme indicator readings most often indicate that when the market finally finds its footing and bounces, it will then come back and retest the low.
     On the expected bounce (which should come within five bars of bar #9) we can use fibonacci relationships and moving averages to help set targets as well as TD Trend Factor. This gives me two areas to watch which are marked on the chart: around 1180 and then (and perhaps more importantly) 1245. At Monday's close the hourly chart had an unqualified break of sequential buy risk level, so we may try to start a bounce from here
     Bottom Line: The allocation mix meter is at +25%. Waiting for the bounce.

SPX Weekly Chart - 5 Aug 2011

     It was, simply put, a horrible week for the cash SP500. After qualifying a break of the trendline that defines the entire rally from the 2009 lows (shown on today's chart of the weekly cash SP500 in orange), a feeble rally attempt failed at the short (red) and medium (blue) moving averages. The market then plunged in the Z-pulse of the price pulse model. Recall that the Z-pulse often contains the sharpest declines as the Delta-pulse often contains the largest rallies. The break of the bullish trendline was not only confirmed but the break of TDST support (horizontal dashed green line at 1219.50) was qualified as well. Price continued to fall and finally tried to find support at the end of the week at the long (green) moving averages.
     Using the RSI (top pane) as a trend indicator shows the seriousness of the current decline. The rally from the 2009 lows was shown to be of the bullish variety in April 2010 when the indicator broke above the zone reserved for bear market resistance. Note that we then held the zone reserved for bull market support when we pulled back into the Summer of 2010. This decline also held well above the Long moving average. The bull was reconfirmed on November 5, 2010 when the RSI again moved above the 63-67 zone. Bearish divergence after a sequential sell countdown 13 forewarned of trouble, and now we have broken below the support zone for bull markets and the Long moving average.
     Bottom Line: At this point there is no reason to rush into any new judgments abut the medium term outlook. The bears have reconfirmed their control of the market and the allocation meter is down to +25%.

GLD Quarterly Chart

     The "big picture" view of GLD (World Gold Index); as seen by the Quarterly chart, is dominated from the tremendous bull rally from the 1999 low. Unusual is the fact that we have reached an astounding 40 consecutive price bars which closed higher than the close of the bar four previous to it. This included the string of 28 consecutive such closes through the completion of a sequential countdown in the second quarter of 2008 (2Q08). The implication of this development is that there has been no chance of a sell setup "recycle". The buying pressure has been unrelenting. Now, with the risk level associated with the completed sequential sell countdown (dashed horizontal cyan line at 1224.6) exceeded without even a price flip, this chart is a long way from any TD sell signal. At a minimum we would have to get a price flip to recycle and then another sell setup.
     This same conclusion is drawn from the price pulse model. From the 1999 low we are in a delta pulse of the sequence, and a sell signal can only be generated now with a direct collapse beneath the beta-pulse low. To get a more "reasonable" sell we need an x-pulse pullback followed by a y-pulse rally that sets up actionable sell parameters. Interestingly this is similar to needing a sell setup recycle.
     So is there a pullback in sight that might produce an x-pulse and sell setup recycle? The only hint that this might well be pending is the fact that the tops in the derivative oscillator (bottom pane) are diverging with price. So yes, our x-pulse pullback is coming. But when? To better answer this question we need to drop down to the monthly level which will be covered in my next post on GLD.
     Bottom Line: the quarterly chart is unsurprisingly bullish and would contribute a +25 to an allocation mix meter.

SPX Daily Chart - 4 August 2011

     It was a horrible day no matter how you slice and dice it. Without bullish divergence between price and the RSI, Wednesday afternoon's bounce associated with the buy setup on the hourly chart led nowhere. This morning we find ourselves waiting for another sequential or countdown completion on that time frame; both counts being on bar #7.
     Thursday's price action sliced through the risk level (shown on the chart by the horizontal dashed cyan line at 1242.03) associated with the sequential buy signal on the daily chart. This time the break was qualified. Perhaps the bulls also need to wait for another buy setup to develop on this time frame. Waiting a bit is also counseled by the indicators I follow. As an example, the RSI (top pane) is now at it's lowest level since October 2008. Notice this is well prior to the ultimate 2009 low. The point is that extreme indicator readings most often indicate that when the market finally finds its footing it will come back and test the low after a rally or consolidation.
     Bottom Line: The allocation mix meter is at +25%. Waiting for the dust to clear.

SPX Daily Chart - 3 August 2011

     The cash SP500 fell during the morning, breaking below the March low of 1249.05 which was critical to the monthly chart and the equity asset allocation meter. I have taken more money off the table and now only have a 25% position. By the end of the session the market had recovered all of its losses on the day and finished positive.
     On the hourly chart the TD sequential buy that completed at 1pm Tuesday never executed as we had a valid and confirmed break of the associated risk level of 1255.95. Interestingly, the market bottomed within a point of the calculated target from the confirmed break of the TD supply line (upsloping dashed green line) presented yesterday. At the noon hour the hourly then completed another TD Buy setup which led to the bounce into the close. Disconcerting is that the hourly RSI made low along with price - there was no bullish divergence. At first blush I interpret this as telling me a longer-term low is not in.
     Wednesday's price action dipped below the risk level (shown on the chart by the horizontal dashed cyan line at 1242.03) associated with the sequential buy signal on the daily chart. This was an unqualified break and is something the bulls can try to build on. Keep in mind that in my work the sequential only gives a "buy" signal if we get a price flip before a qualified and confirmed break of the risk level. That would occur on a close today above 1292.28. Furthermore, It would still take a price pulse buy signal (a move above the delta pulse high of 1347) before the allocation meter would be raised.
     Bottom Line: The allocation mix meter is now at +25%. Yes, this implies that as a longer term investor I think a significant equity top is in. I view any sequential buy signals on the hourly and/or daily charts as indicators of nothing more than a counter-trend rally. Perhaps playable by traders but not by my system.

SPX Daily Chart - 2 August 2011

     First things first. Following yesterday's post we must now acknowledge that the bears have reconfirmed their control of the cash SP500 market. This brings us right to what was said two days ago in the latest monthly post: "... in my asset allocation work the actual "sell" signal will not come unless we get a print below the March low of 1249.05. Even though I believe that risk is growing for longer term investors (like myself), the monthly chart remains in a bullish position in my work. That is, it does not negatively impact asset allocation towards the equity market at this moment ... a break below the March low would change that situation." Such a move (now only 5 SPX points away) and the asset allocation meter immediately falls to 25%.
     Is there anything positive in the technicals as far as the bulls are concerned?  Here we need to look closely at the hourly and daily charts. Let's start with the hourly. I have a TD sequential buy that completed at 1pm yesterday but have not yet had it confirmed with a price flip. To me this means the chart continues on the "verge" of a buy signal. However, this signal is already on the brink of being nullified as price has already had a valid break of the risk level at 1255.95. This will have to be watched closely this morning to see if a buy signal is actually generated or not.
     On the daily chart (attached) we had a validated and confirmed break of the TD supply line (upsloping dashed green line) on July 27. The calculated target associated with this event is 1235.36 with the next TD Trend Factor target at 1209.83. Both targets are shown on the chart. Will we reach them? The RSI (upper pane) continues to show that a bear market is underway on this time frame; but, we just completed a sequential buy countdown yesterday. The former fact supports reaching the targets while the latter says we may not. On top of this we can lay the daily price pulse pattern which shows we are in an X-pulse of a (still) bearish pattern. I think that this tilts the odds in favor of the bears.
     Keep in mind that in my work the sequential only gives a "buy" signal if we get a price flip before a qualified and confirmed break of the risk level (shown on the chart by the horizontal dashed cyan line at 1242.03).  Furthermore, it would also take a price pulse buy signal (a move above the delta pulse high of 1347) before the allocation meter would be raised.
     Bottom Line: The allocation mix meter remains at +50% but would drop to 25% on any break of the March low. I believe that we now have confirmation that the July 7th high was the top of a counter-trend rally and that the rally high from the 2009 low was very likely made on May 2. I would view any sequential buy signals on the hourly and/or daily charts as indicators of nothing more than a counter-trend rally. Perhaps playable by traders but not by my system.

SPX Weekly Chart - 1 Aug 2011

     After one trading day into the new week it is apparent that the equity market is not concerned with the debt ceiling, it is concerned with the trendline that defines the entire rally from the 2009 low. This line is shown on today's chart of the weekly cash SP500 in orange. We broke this line in a confirmed manner Monday morning by opening below it. The spike up from that open ran out of steam as we approached moving average (both short and medium) resistance.
     The price action has now confirmed that the Y-pulse completed at the July 8th high.  Per the Price Pulse Model (from Tony Plummer's book "Forecasting Financial Markets: Technical Analysis and the Dynamics of Price" on page 109, revised edition 1990) we've been discussing over the past several weeks, a longer-term sell signal will be given if the z-pulse were to penetrate below the x-pulse low of 1258.07. The chart initially turned negative when the Beta-pulse low was broken during the week of June 10.
     As a follow-up to the last weekly post I have included the Derivative Oscillator (top pane). Look what happened at the May 6 (delta pulse) high: this indicator failed at the zero line. Are we about to fail at the zero line again? If the action remains weak this week the answer will be yes.
     However, there is usually always something for the opposite side to hold on to. In this case the bulls will want to argue that a deep decline will be hard to immediately engineer from here for two reasons. One is that the Demand Line (dashed green line) can not be confirmed broken this week and secondly .... the daily chart has just completed bar #13 of a sequential buy countdown! More on this development tomorrow when I look at the latest daily chart.
     Bottom Line: At this point there is no reason to abandon the price pulse model. The bears will reconfirm their control if they can move this market below 1258.07. The allocation meter remains at +50%. That is, a half position in equities.

SPX Monthly Chart - July 2011

     We closed near the lowest prices of the month basis the cash SP500 index. After breaking below the TD Demand Line (upsloping dashed green line) in a qualified manner in June, we has a calculated objective of 1276.35 which was met that same month. We then bounced quickly higher and moved above the June high in early July but then sank during the rest of the month. Of interest is that the July price action failed to confirm the Demand Line break. Although this leaves open the possibility that we rally, I think the odds are against a sustained move to new highs. Here's why:
     First ...  Using the RSI (top pane) as a trend indicator we can see that we have turned down right in the area reserved for bear market resistance. That is, this indicator is currently saying that the rally from 2009 is most likely corrective in nature and that we may have run out of steam.
     Second ... Another negative development on the monthly chart is the decline in the Derivative Oscillator (middle pane) over the past two months which has led to a bearish divergence with both price and the RSI. This bearish divergence is also being shown by the Composite Index (not shown).
     Third ...  June's downtrending price bar was also a price flip (closing lower than the close four bars prior) that cemented the TD Combo sell countdown in February. Note that this was also the first price flip after a sell setup bar #9. This setup bar #9 implies that we should have resolution of this bull/bear tension within five months. The Combo sell and bearish divergence in the derivative oscillator and composite index argue for a bearish resolution.
     These three developments, in my mind at least, outweigh the demand line failure and cast doubt on the equity market going forward. Even if we get a rally in August it will be hard to believe it is a bullish omen. In fact, even if we were to break the 1404.05 (TDST resistance) level in a qualified and confirmed manner it is hard to see a sequential sell signal not forming at the same time - we have been on bar #11 since May.
      With all that said, I have to keep in mind the Bottom Line: in my asset allocation work the actual "sell" signal will not come unless we get a print below the March low of 1249.05. Even though I believe that risk is growing for longer term investors (like myself), the monthly chart remains in a bullish position in my work. That is, it does not negatively impact asset allocation towards the equity market at this moment. As just mentioned, a break below the March low would change that situation.

SPX Daily Chart - 28 July 2011

     The cash SP500 confirmed the break of the TD supply line (upsloping dashed green line) yesterday making the immediate target the TD Trend Factor shown on the chart at the 1281.06 level.
     On the hourly chart we began Thursday by completing a TD Buy Setup, but this only resulted in a bounce lasting a couple of hours before we sold off into the close. We ended the day testing TDST support at the 1300.01 level. Today the battle will continue to be over the July 18 low (1295.92) since a break of this level would confirm the level 2 (which aligns with the weekly chart) price pulse pattern we've been following (see last weekly chart update for details) and mean that the Z pulse is underway. If the bulls want to defend the July 18 low there is still an opportunity for them on the hourly chart. We have not yet confirmed the break of hourly TDST support nor broken the risk level of 1297.35 associated with the TD Buy Setup we completed at 10am Thursday.
     Also of extreme interest to me is what the RSI (top pane) will do here. Note that this indicator signaled a bear market from the May 2 high when it dipped below support on June 6. It then failed to clear resistance during the rally into the July 7 high warning that this move was a bear market rally. Now we are once again approaching the support level. Let's see if it can hold or not. I vote no.
     Bottom Line: The allocation mix meter remains at +50%. I remain quite concerned that the rally high from the 2009 low was made on May 2. As such, I will be watching closely for confirmation that the July 7th high was the top of a counter trend rally.

SPX Daily Chart - 27July 2011

     After attacking resistance during the sessions of July 21-23, the bulls failed and were turned back. The initial decline from the failed resistance zone was mild but picked up steam yesterday. Price of the cash SP500 not only formed another downtrending price bar but also broke through the TD supply line (upsloping dashed green line) in a qualified manner. If the break of that line is confirmed today then the immediate target is the TD Trend Factor shown on the chart at the 1281.06 level.
     From here the bulls don't want to see the July 18 low (1295.92) taken out since this would confirm the level 2 (which aligns with the weekly chart) price pulse pattern we've been following (see last weekly chart update for details) and mean that the Z pulse is underway. If the bulls want to defend the July 18 low there is an opportunity for them on the hourly chart. We potentially can complete a TD Buy Setup at 10am this morning very near current TDST support at the 1300.01 level.
     Bottom Line: The allocation mix meter remains at +50%. I remain quite concerned that the rally high from the 2009 low was made on May 2. As such, I will be watching closely for confirmation that the July 7th high was the top of a counter trend rally.

SPX Daily Chart - 26 July 2011

It was a fairly quiet session yesterday with the cash SP500 forming a downtrending price bar. After being turned back by a combination of daily (1345.20) and hourly (1343.78) TDST resistance the market has only drifted lower over the past few sessions. This lackluster decline makes me wonder if the failure at resistance was really the warning that the delta pulse is running out of steam like I thought it was. If so, then last Thursday's high should not be exceeded in the near term.
     On a hourly basis the first level of support is at 1324.93. The inability of the bears to get price below this level will make me further question whether the bulls have thrown in the towel. However; those bovine must still prove their case by getting through (in a qualified and confirmed manner) both the supply line (down sloping red dashed line) and TDST resistance on the daily chart.
     Bottom Line: The allocation mix meter remains at +50%. I remain quite concerned that the rally high from the 2009 low was made on May 2. As such, I will be watching closely for confirmation that the July 7th high was the top of a counter trend rally.

SPX Daily Chart - 25 July 2011

     For the cash SP500, both daily (1345.20) and hourly (1343.78) TDST resistance continues to hold back the market. The daily break of the TDST line (horizontal, dashed red line on the chart) was not confirmed on Friday since we opened below the line. This failure was evident in yesterday's down trending price bar. I interpret this failure as a warning that the delta pulse is running out of steam. If so, then last Thursday's high should not be exceeded in the near term.
     On a hourly basis the break above 1343.78 on Friday was not qualified and we had a bearish price/RSI divergence at the 1pm hour. This technical weakness also preceded yesterday's decline.
     Now, the onus is on the bulls. They must prove their case by getting through (in a qualified and confirmed manner) both the supply line (down sloping red dashed line) and TDST resistance on the daily chart. If they can do so I will sit up and notice!
     Bottom Line: The allocation mix meter is at +50%. I remain quite concerned that the rally high from the 2009 low was made on May 2. As such, I will be watching closely for confirmation that the July 7th high was the top of a counter trend rally.

SPX Weekly Chart - 22 July 2011

     When sell sequential bar #13 recorded on February 18, 2011 the cash SP500 closed at 1343.01. On Friday we closed at 1345.02. Certainly we can agree that the last weekly sequential signal has led to a market consolidation (which has now lasted 22 weeks). Last week I said that the "generally sideways movement would continue" for a couple more weeks. Since last week ended higher, I guess that means this week must go lower! Is there support for this in the weekly chart? Let's take a look.
     After qualifying and confirming a break through the short (red) moving average the cash S&P's found support at the medium (blue) moving average (via an unqualified break) and rallied nicely last week. Now the TD Supply line (dashed red) looms overhead at 1351.78 this week. Unless we open above that level today we will not be able to qualify an upward break of that line this week; which tells me to anticipate supply entering the market. I also come to that conclusion when I see the RSI (top pane) continually losing strength while prices consolidate. For the bulls the moment of truth is at hand. The Derivative Oscillator (middle pane) slipped below zero shortly after the sequential signal was given in February and has stayed below it since. Look what happened at the May 6 (delta pulse) high: this indicator failed at the zero line. Are we about to fail at the zero line again?
     I think we might very well do so; if only because the action continues to develop according to the Price Pulse theory scenario outlined in my weekly chart posting for June 10. I repeat that here so you don't have to hunt for it:
     "Currently the weekly chart's price pulse scenario can be captured by these words from Tony Plummer's book "Forecasting Financial Markets: Technical Analysis and the Dynamics of Price" on page 109. "A short term sell signal is triggered as the x-wave falls below the bottom of the Beta-wave. However, the subsequent y-wave rally may abort the signal by rallying back above it; indeed, it may even  retrace close to the peak levels established by the alpha-wave and the delta-wave. A longer-term (or regenerated) sell signal is given when the z-wave penetrates below the bottom of the x-wave." The pulses are marked on the chart."
     Bottom Line: At this point there is no reason to abandon the price pulse model. The current 'y' pulse rally can move us to new highs but I don't expect that. Key will be the old sequential 13 risk level (shown by the horizontal cyan dashed line) at 1363.53 and the current supply line already mentioned. The allocation meter remains at +50%.

SPX Daily Chart - 21 July 2011

     After consolidating at resistance on Wednesday, Thursday saw the cash SP500 move sharply higher to the next resistance area created by both daily (1345.20) and hourly (1343.78) TDST levels. Will this resistance hold or not?
     On both a daily and hourly basis we can say that the charts broke above their respective lines in a qualified manner. Let's look at both starting with the hourly. The break above the TDST line was not confirmed on an hourly basis and another sell setup completed at 3pm. This setup has not experienced a price flip and must hit 1355.35 (before such a flip occurs) if it is to become the active setup as far as sequential goes. In any event, this indicates that the market is vulnerable to a reversal or correction during the first half of trading today; particularly since we have a negative price/RSI divergence in place on the hourly chart.
     On the daily chart the break of the TDST line (horizontal, dashed red line on the chart) will not be confirmed today if we open below the line or fail to exceed yesterday's high. I would interpret such a failure as a warning that the delta pulse is running out of steam; and I favor this scenario.
     Bottom Line: The allocation mix meter is at +50%. I remain quite concerned that the rally high from the 2009 low was made on May 2. As such, I will be watching closely for confirmation that the July 7th high was the top of a counter trend rally.

SPX Daily Chart - 20 July 2011

     Wednesday's price action in the cash SP500 is best described as 'drawing a line' at the resistance area created by the short (red) moving average on the daily chart and the hourly TDST resistance level of 1326.88. The poke above the daily short moving average was confirmed by the price action yesterday but the poke above hourly TDST resistance was not. A true stand off between the bulls and bears!
     If any thing is clear at this moment it is these four levels of support and resistance: 1343.78 to 1345.2; 1326.88; 1317.15 to 1318.65; and 1300 to 1306.  Even if we start lower today I don't necessarily think that the recent run up from Monday's low is over. If that is the case I would expect the 1317-18 level to hold. The larger scenario is provided by the price pulse picture. The daily chart is now most likely in a delta pulse of a (still) bearish pattern. If beta bottomed at Monday's low the pattern can not be said to be bullish unless we then go on to exceed the alpha high (which I doubt).
    Perhaps the best way to end this posting is to repeat words from the weekly post: "At this point I think we will see; when all is said and done, generally sideways movement over the next couple of weeks."
     Bottom Line: The allocation mix meter is at +50%. I remain quite concerned that the rally high from the 2009 low was made on May 2. As such, I will be watching closely for confirmation that the July 7th high was the top of a counter trend rally.

SPX Daily Chart - 19 July 2011

     After holding support at the medium (blue) moving average on Monday, the cash SP500 moved directly to the short (red) moving average yesterday; closing above it in a qualified manner. Will today see confirmation of that break? We are at interesting point since the challenge of the daily short moving average is occurring where we have TDST resistance (on the hourly chart) at 1326.88 - which is just above where we closed (1326.73).
     The verdict on whether this hourly resistance and daily moving average will hold the bulls here will be given very early in today's session. However; for the more important hourly sequential buy countdown (which is still stuck on bar #11)  the 1343.78 level is of extreme importance and so I don't necessarily think that the decline from the July 7 high is done if resistance doesn't hold this morning. In fact, from a price pulse point of view, the daily chart is now most likely in a delta pulse of a (still) bearish pattern. This would support the resistance failing this morning. But note that if beta bottomed at Monday's low the pattern is still not bullish unless we then go on to exceed the alpha high (which is what I am doubting the bulls will be able to do).
     That 1343.78 level just mentioned is associated with the still active TDST resistance level on the daily chart at 1345.20. If this resistance area is not breached (in a qualified and confirmed manner) then i expect that the current rally from Monday's low will run out of steam and be followed by another drive down towards the Trend Factor target of 1281.06 (shown on the chart).
     Bottom Line: The allocation mix meter is at +50%. I remain quite concerned that the rally high from the 2009 low was made on May 2. As such, I will be watching closely for confirmation that the July 7th high was the top of a counter trend rally.

SPX Daily Chart - 18 July 2011

     Starting from the long (green) moving average at the open, the cash SP500 moved steadily downward to break below the medium (blue) moving average by early afternoon. From there a rally lasted into the close and we finished above the blue moving average. The close yesterday was virtually identical with the weekly medium moving average. Yesterday I noted how this level would be important this week, but we still have four more days to go!
     On the hourly chart, I continue to watch a sequential buy countdown unfold. We hit bar #11 before the afternoon rally. Current TDST resistance on this time frame is at 1326.88 which is close to the daily short (red) moving average. The daily price pulse chart shows 1317.7 as an important point and so this area must be considered important resistance. However; for the hourly countdown, the 1343.78 level is of extreme importance and so don't think the decline is done if 1326.88 is broken. Because, if the 1343.78 level is not breached, I expect that any rally from here will run out of steam and be followed by another drive down towards the Trend Factor target of 1281.06 (shown on the chart).
     From a price pulse point of view, the daily chart is now in a beta pulse of a bearish pattern. The pattern can not turn bullish unless beta completes above the z bottom (which it is now threatening to do) and we then go on to exceed the alpha high (which I doubt).
     Bottom Line: The allocation mix meter is at +50%. I remain quite concerned that the rally high from the 2009 low was made on May 2. As such, I will be watching closely for confirmation that the July 7th high was the top of a counter trend rally.

SPX Weekly Chart - 15 July 2011

     On the weekly time frame my expectation of topping action continues unaltered. This week my main focus will be on how the cash SP500 interacts with the short (red) and medium (blue) moving averages. Will they provide support to the market? Or is it possible that the 'y' pulse rally is complete?
     Bottom Line: At this point I think we will see; when all is said and done, generally sideways movement over the next couple of weeks. At that point it may be time for the next directional move. The allocation meter is at +50%.