After holding TDST Support (1312.62) on the daily chart last week, the cash SP500 bounced through the short (red) and medium (blue) moving averages as well as the TD Supply line (downsloping dashed red line). However, none of these upside line breaks were qualified and we sold off sharply yesterday.
Yesterday's sell off also saw a qualified break of the TD Demand Line (upsloping dashed green line). Today my technical focus will be on whether that break (as well as the close below the long; green, moving average) is confirmed and whether we close below TDST support or not. If these levels can't hold the next downside support is at 1285.54 (TD Trend Factor). Recall from Tuesday's weekly post that we had a weekly TD Demand line break with a calculated objective of 1282.73. The weekly medium moving average sits at 1284.48 this morning.
The cluster of targets in the 1282-1286 zone are concerning since I have been expecting the 1294.7 level to hold. And that is why today's action is so important for the bullish case. Let's see if we can hold TDST support over the next two days. Remember that a close below that level must be confirmed before we claim it has been broken.
Bottom Line: The allocation mix meter remains at +100%. I am still expecting to see new highs before the April low is violated. If I am wrong the mix meter immediately goes to +50% on a break below 1294.7.
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