Yesterday the close below the long (green) moving average was confirmed but we did not close below TDST support. If TDST support (1312.62) can't hold the next downside support is at 1285.54 (TD Trend Factor). Recall from Tuesday's weekly post that we had a weekly TD Demand line break with a calculated objective of 1282.73. The weekly medium moving average sits at 1284.43 this morning.
The cluster of targets in the 1282-1286 zone are concerning since I have been expecting the 1294.7 level to hold. And that is why today's action continues to be so important for the bullish case. There are reasons to believe it can hold: Daily RSI still holding bull market support zone; Price acceleration down since the May 31 high not being matched by the derivative oscillator; the composite index & derivative oscillator not at new lows like price or RSI; a TD Buy setup completed at the low on yesterday's hourly chart; and there was a bullish RSI/Price divergence at yesterday's low on the 15 minute chart. However; even with all of those 'possible' supporting technicals, we still need to see TDST support hold. Remember that a close below 1312.62 must be confirmed before we claim it has been broken.
Bottom Line: The allocation mix meter remains at +100%. I am still expecting to see new highs before the April low is violated. If I am wrong the mix meter immediately goes to +50% on a break below 1294.7.
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