The session started with a bounce as the cash SP500 reacted to reaching the TD Trend Factor target of 1285.54 (and the overall support zone in the 1282-86 area) as well as completing a TD Buy Setup on the hourly chart. That bounce was done by late morning and then we drifted sideways until the last hour of the day when the bears reasserted themselves. We ended up with an inside bar, back in the support zone and with a close just below the Trend Factor target.
In today's session I will be watching for a TD Sequential buy countdown to conclude early on as we ended yesterday on bar #12. If the market can find its footing the first upside target would be the short moving average which should be at about 1313 or so today. If we can't hold here then the 1275-1279 support area is next, with even lower support zones found at 1263-1266 and then 1249-1257.
Bottom Line: The allocation mix meter is now at +50%. My near term scenario has the current decline ending shortly (within the next four sessions if 1284.72 wasn't the low) and holding above the March lows. This will be followed by a choppy rally that takes us back above the 1344 level. However; I am now quite concerned that the high may already be in for the rally from the 2009 low.
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