At least for now the cash SP500 has held TDST Support at 1279.20.
On the hourly chart yesterday: The market rose immediately after completing both a sequential and buy countdown on Wednesday. Both of these completed counts were accompanied by a bullish price/RSI divergence. We finally had a bullish price flip at the 11 o'clock hour and price responded by climbing steadily. We approached hourly TDST resistance (1296.22) before selling off in the last hour.
In today's session I will be watching to see if the pullback that started in the last hour yesterday can hold the RSI zone reserved for support in bull markets. Such a development would set the stage for another swing higher. On any such swing I want to see if TDST resistance can be broken in a qualified manner. If so we may reach towards the short (red) moving average.
Bottom Line: The allocation mix meter is at +50%. My near term scenario has the current decline ending shortly (within the next few sessions if it hasn't already) and holding above the March lows. This will be followed by a choppy rally that takes us back above the 1344 level. However; I remain quite concerned that the high may already be in for the rally from the 2009 low.
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